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Call for Papers–Migration (Immigration and Emigration)

Overview

The primary objective of this Call for Papers is to enhance the understanding of inter-national migration in ways that might lead to improvements in (1) the methodologies and assumptions used in national population projections and (2) estimates of the impact of migration on the economy and social insurance cost and financing. It is also hoped to foster the sharing of information useful for sound social insurance projections internationally.

The long-term financial sustainability of social insurance programs depends on many demographic and economic factors. Important factors in assessing sustainability include both the composition and characteristics of the working and beneficiary populations and how they evolve over time. For this assessment, it is crucial for any country that offers such programs to project its population using appropriate methodologies as well as realistic and objectively determined best-estimate assumptions in respect of each significant underlying demographic factor. These demographic factors include fertility, mortality and inter-national migration. Fertility rates that have been consistently below replacement rates over the last 20 to 30 years for many countries and lowered mortality rates, together with the impending retirement of baby boomers, have resulted in the ageing of the population of most countries, making demographic projections particularly important.

In such a demographic context, inter-national migration can be a critical factor that may help ensure that funds are sufficient to provide for the needs of the overall population and, in particular, that revenue from such sources will be sufficient to maintain the long term financial sustainability of social insurance programs. Such migration for a particular country may be either inward (immigration) or outward (emigration).

Although each of the three major demographic factors brings its own set of projection challenges, inter-national migration projections may be more difficult to prepare due to: the large historical volatility in their rates and characteristics; the direct link to national immigration policies that may change; the difficulty in obtaining relevant and reliable data; and the indirect connection to inter-national economies and labor markets.

Inter-national migration is composed of several components, each made up of different demographic characteristics. In addition, although each of these can be addressed independently in developing projection methods and assumptions, they are not unrelated and can impact the others. Understanding these interrelationships is an important part of developing meaningful and internally consistent projections. The major components, or flows, of inter-national migration can be categorized as:

Legal immigrants entering the country;
Others entering the country, including illegal immigrants (i.e., unauthorized and undocumented migrants) and certain legal non-immigrants (i.e., temporary legal residents);
Persons changing status after entering the country, including both those gaining legal status and those overstaying temporary visas; and
Emigrants, including departures from the country by legal immigrants, other immigrants, naturalized citizens, and native born citizens.

Rates of immigration and emigration are certain to fluctuate in the future. In developing projections it is important to understand the various theories that exist and the socio-economic and demographic drivers that may affect the future level and type of inter-national migration. For example, in some countries fertility rates are below the replacement level. This is a condition that may lead to a need for a growing number of immigrants to maintain a sufficient labor force across a range of employment needs, although there has been political and cultural pressure in some areas at some times to limit the amount of immigration. Nevertheless, if many countries are experiencing low fertility, they may find themselves in competition to attract a desirable level and type of immigrants. Will there be enough people who desire to relocate and become immigrants to accommodate those demands? Will future immigrants have the desired skills and characteristics to fulfill the specific needs of each country competing for these resources?

Ideally, projections of inter-national migration should consider the various demographic and socio-economic characteristics of each migration component. If significantly different, separate assumptions regarding the age-sex and marital status composition of each component may be appropriate. Differential assumptions in fertility, disability, retirement and mortality patterns of the native and non-native population might also be considered. Differences in their types of employment (full time, part-time, underground), average employment earnings and labor force participation rates should also be recognized. On the other hand, it must be realized that subdividing the general population into small sub-groups to recognize the different demographic and economic characteristics of the various components of inter-national migrants adds complexity and greater uncertainty. As with any increase in model complexity, the potential benefits of specification of additional subgroups must be weighed against the cost and greater uncertainty involved.

Even with sophisticated methods and realistic best-estimate assumptions in respect of future inter-national migration, because of the many factors involved, there will always be great uncertainty surrounding actual future experience. For this reason, it is important to measure the sensitivity of financial projections under plausible alternative assumptions. Doing so provides stakeholders and policymakers with a better sense of the potential uncertainty and risks involved and helps them develop better policy.

Desired Content for Papers

The following topics, although provided as a guide to the types of issues to be addressed by submitted papers, are not intended to limit the issues covered by potential authors. However, note that political aspects of public policy issues surrounding immigration and the topic of intra-country migration are not intended to be included within the scope of accepted papers.