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Call for Papers–Predictive Modeling for Life Insurers

1. Overview

Traditionally predictive modeling techniques have been used within the insurance industry to help gain a better understanding of current and/or future insured risks leading to improved risk segmentation and underwriting, pricing and marketing processes and decisions. Predictive modeling involves "mining" datasets and performing statistical analysis that may uncover unexpected relationships about the underlying risks that may indicate the likelihood of future outcomes for an insurer.

While predictive models have been developed and applied within the property and casualty and health insurance industries, their prevalence is not as great within the life insurance industry. This Call For Papers examines how existing or new methods or models can be applied by life insurers and is addressed to individuals knowledgeable in this subject matter.

2. Content

The Society of Actuaries' Committee on Life Insurance Research (CLIR) is seeking papers on the application of predictive modeling for life insurers. A list of suggested topics is presented below. The list is neither complete nor restrictive, but rather is intended to stimulate ideas and describe some topics that might be addressed in a paper that will contribute significantly to current theory, knowledge or methodology.

• Identify and discuss practical applications of predictive modeling for a life insurer.
• Describe the application of an existing method/model (e.g. Generalized Linear Modeling) or a new method/model to applicable datasets.
• Identify and discuss factors, considerations, and/or barriers to developing and implementing predictive models for life insurers. Examples might include but are not limited to considerations in determining the computer language or data sources to use for the modeling, as well as establishing the assumptions for the model.
• Describe modeling pitfalls and solutions for life insurers applying predictive modeling.

The SOA intends to publish all of the accepted papers on its website. In addition, some papers may be published in other SOA publications such as one of the refereed journals of the Society of Actuaries.

As a first step, prospective authors are asked to submit an abstract of the proposed paper or the full paper if already written. Papers shall not include commercial content or endorsement for a particular predictive modeling product.

3. Procedure for Submission of Abstracts

Please submit an abstract or outline of your proposed paper by October 31, 2009. The abstract should include a brief description of the subject of the paper, data sources and methods to be used, and key items to be covered. A brief curriculum vitae or resume for each author is also required. Submit the information by email to:

• Jan Schuh
Research Administrator
• e-mail: jschuh@soa.org
4. Procedure for Reviewing Abstracts

A review group under the direction of the Committee on Life Insurance Research will evaluate all submitted abstracts and papers. Input from other knowledgeable individuals or sponsors also may be sought. Abstract submissions will be accepted, accepted subject to revision, or declined. The review group is scheduled to complete its evaluation of the abstracts/outlines/papers by November 30, 2009.

5. Procedure for Submission of Papers

If an abstract is accepted, the associated paper must be completed and submitted by April 30, 2010. Completed papers that have a copyright must be accompanied by written permission to reprint.

All papers should be submitted electronically to Jan Schuh at jschuh@soa.org and meet the following guidelines:

• Papers must be in English and submitted as a Word document.
• Papers must not have been published elsewhere.
• Papers should be prepared according to the SOA General Style and Format Guidelines attached to this Call for Papers.
6. Publication

After receiving all submissions, the review group will determine which papers will be published by the SOA on its website. Decisions will be based not only on the stand-alone suitability of each paper, but also on how the selected papers fit together to provide appropriate coverage of the topic.

Authors of accepted papers may be invited to present their papers at an SOA-sponsored symposium or meeting.

Upon request, authors will be granted permission to submit their papers to other publications provided that the Society of Actuaries can maintain the right to publish the papers.

The SOA reserves the right to publish all papers and to copyright all published papers without a previous copyright. In addition, excerpts or synopses of the papers may be published for promotional purposes.

The Society of Actuaries reserves the right to reject or not publish any papers not meeting the criteria and standards of the review group.

7. Prizes

Authors of selected papers will be eligible for the following prizes to be awarded to the best three papers on the subject as determined by the review group:

• First Prize: $7,500
• Second Prize: $5,000
• Third Prize: $2,500
8. Questions

Please direct questions regarding this Call for Papers to:

• Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA
• SOA Research Actuary
• ph: 847.706.3614
• e-mail: rstryker@soa.org

SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES GENERAL STYLE AND FORMAT GUIDELINES

1. The paper should be word-processed, using only one side of each sheet of paper. It should be double-spaced throughout. The font should be 12 pt, and the margins should be 1 inch on all four sides.
2. The paper should comprise the following elements, at a minimum:
• Abstract or Executive Summary
• Table of Contents, including lists of figures and tables
• Introduction or Background
• Methodology or Materials and Methods
• Discussion
• Results
• Conclusions or Recommendations
• Citations (List of References, Bibliography, Footnotes, or End Notes)
• Appendixes (as necessary for detailed presentation of results)
3. Each section or chapter should have a caption. Major captions should be centered and typed in capitals. Sub-captions should appear at the left-hand margin.
4. Symbols should not be handwritten. They should be prepared with a word-processing program that supports mathematical equations. Particular care should be exercised so that symbols are legible, especially Greek symbols, subscripts, and superscripts. The international code, described in Appendixes 3 and 4 of Actuarial Mathematics, should be used.
5. Tables and figures or charts should be numbered consecutively, have a title that is clear, concise, and complete, and have a legend that explains all symbols used. No two tables or figures may have the same title; if a table is longer than one page, the second and ensuing pages are simply labeled "Table 1–Continued."
6. The sources of previously published material used to prepare the report must be identified. The following information must be given:
• Author(s) or editor(s) name(s)
• Title of article (in a journal) or chapter (in a book, if author is different from author of book)
• Title of book or journal
• Date of publication
• Volume or edition number, inclusive page numbers
• City of publication (for books)
• Publisher (for books)