Research Projects
Calls for Papers
Living to 100: Survival to Advanced Ages–Call for Papers
- Introduction
Encouraged by the success of the 2002 and 2005 symposia on Living to 100 and taking into
consideration a growing awareness of the long term effects of increasing numbers of persons surviving to very
high ages, the Society of Actuaries Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia is now organizing its third
triennial international symposium on high age mortality and related issues to be held in January, 2008. Ages of
interest are ages 60 and over with special emphasis on ages 85 and over. This Symposium will also serve as a
follow up to the SOA’s successful symposium on mortality projections for social insurance held in 1997.
The objectives of the 2008 symposium include facilitating a significant improvement in the
quality of population data at advanced ages, describing mortality projection methods and providing enhanced
mortality rate and population projections. A major thrust of this Call for Papers is to encourage experts in the
field of government sponsored retirement systems (social security) from around the world to develop sound
estimates of present and future survival rates that can be used to evaluate the appropriateness of current
social security system projections.
Mortality experience and analyses relevant to individual or group annuities and life
insurance as well as from public and private retirement systems are also encouraged.
As in 2002 and 2005, this symposium will provide a forum for discussions on the present and
future quality of life of those of advanced age–not just the retired but also those who continue to work
or who have had to return to work in order to maintain their standard of living.
The 2008 Symposium will include some simultaneous sessions in order to cover a wider range of
subjects and allow more time for discussions. Detailed descriptions regarding Symposium content may be found in
Section III of this Call For Papers.
This Call for Papers is addressed to all professionals
knowledgeable in the subject matter. Collaboration is encouraged and authors may submit more than one
paper.
The following organizations have agreed to participate in this research endeavor with the
SOA. Additional organizations may be added to the list in the near future.
AARP Public Policy Institute
Actuarial Society of Hong Kong
Actuarial Society of India
Actuarial Society of South Africa
Actuarial Society of the Philippines
Alliance for Aging Research
American Academy of Actuaries
American Academy of Insurance Medicine
American Geriatrics Society
American Society of Health Economists
American Society of Pension Professionals and Actuaries
American Statistical Association
Association of Home Office Underwriters
Canadian Institute of Actuaries
Canada Pension Plan
Cenla Area Agency on Aging, Inc.
Colegio Nacional de Actuarios (Mexico)
Conference of Consulting Actuaries
Cyprus Association of Actuaries
Czech Society of Actuaries
Den Danske Aktuarforening (Denmark)
Estonian Actuarial Society
Employee Benefit Research Institute
Government Actuary’s Department, United Kingdom
Institute of Actuaries of Australia
Institute of Actuaries of Japan
International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans
Japanese Society of Certified Pension Actuaries
Lebanese Association of Actuaries
LIMRA International, Inc.
LOMA
National Academy of Social Insurance
National Council on Aging
New Zealand Society of Actuaries
Pension Research Council and Boettner Center on Financial Gerontology, The Wharton School
Persatuan Aktuari Malaysia–Actuarial Society of Malaysia
Quebec Pension Plan
Singapore Actuarial Society
Social Security Administration
Statistics Canada
The UK Actuarial Profession–Institute of Actuaries and Faculty of Actuaries
- Dates and Locations of the Symposium
The symposium is currently scheduled for Jan. 7–9, 2008
in Orlando, Florida, USA. It is anticipated that travel and lodging expenses for authors selected to present at
the symposium will be reimbursed.
All papers and discussions presented at the 2005 symposium are
available on the Society’s web site at:
Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph
Papers presented at the SOA’s 1997 Mortality Projections for Social Insurance Symposium
were published in the October 1998 issue of the North American Actuarial Journal (Volume 2 Number 4).
- Content
To fulfill the objectives of this Call for Papers a list of suggested topics is presented
below. The list is neither complete nor restrictive, but rather is intended to stimulate ideas and describe some
topics that might be addressed in a paper that will contribute significantly to current theory, knowledge or
methodology. The organization and order of the items should not be considered as implying the final structure of
the Symposium program or the importance that the Symposium sponsors give to the topics listed.
- Evaluation of existing data sources.
- Results of experience studies. Provide compilations and
analyses of data on mortality, particularly ages 85 and over. Examples of analyses include but are not
limited to: mortality by birth cohort, marital status, cause of death, health status, mode of living (for the
elderly), education level, income or financial status and by other social, economic, environmental or
lifestyle factors. Mortality experience differences between general and insured populations and variations
by country can also be addressed. Mortality of surviving spouses after the death of a spouse is also of
interest.
- Appropriateness of data sources. Discuss the appropriateness of
existing data sources for measuring and quantifying the effects of advanced age mortality on retirement
systems, life insurance, annuity and/or long term care insurance products.
- Data accuracy. Since projecting future changes in the number and mix of
population requires accurate data for the current population, discuss techniques for development and analysis
of advanced age mortality data. This includes dealing with problems of data quality found in available data
sets. Describe how to recognize, measure and correct for age inaccuracies and other reporting errors in
population data. Describe how inaccuracy of data can influence the calculation of mortality rates at older
ages.
- Methods to increase data accuracy. Describe current or possible
techniques to enhance data accuracy.
- Techniques for the modeling, projecting and analysis of
mortality and aging.
- Mortality projections. Describe and evaluate methods for
quantifying and projecting mortality improvements, particularly at advanced ages.
- Mortality models. Present and justify theoretical models of future
mortality, especially related to advanced ages.
- Mortality projection by cause of death. Discuss whether projections
should be performed by cause of death. In addition, present possible significant changes in major causes of
mortality, such as possible cures or prevention for diseases, including their effects on mortality
projections and their implications.
- Mortality improvement by demographic characteristics. Describe how
future mortality improvement may differ among demographic groups, such as by gender, age, year of birth,
marital status, income and disability status.
- Projection problems. Discuss current problems and difficulties in
projecting future populations.
- International mortality comparisons. Identify methods and techniques
for comparing advanced age mortality in various countries and provide results.
- Chronicity of disease. Discuss chronicity of disease and its impact on
quality of life and survival to advanced ages.
- Behavioral and environmental factors. Discuss the effect of behavioral
and environmental changes on future mortality improvements, e.g., increased prevalence of obesity, changes in
smoking habits, improvements/deterioration in environmental conditions.
- Projection uncertainty. Discuss methodologies and assumptions that can
be used to evaluate the uncertainty involved in projecting mortality in total or by population segments. For
example, illustrate stochastic methodologies that can be used to project mortality rates and quantify
projection uncertainty.
- Applicability of projections to insurance and to insured and uninsured
retirement plans. Discuss applicability of techniques for projecting
advanced–age mortality for life insurance and annuity pricing and
reserving. Discuss the use of these techniques as applied to insured and uninsured retirement plans.
- Health status projections. Discuss methodologies for assessing and
projecting the health status and sources of morbidity of a population, including multiple decrement healthy
lives tables (Halys) and disabled lives tables (Dalys) as well as multistate projection approaches. Show how
these can be used to forecast future needs for such things as assisted living facilities and home health care
and their staffing, the productivity of an aging labor force, and the need for insurance and annuity
products.
- Marital and family status. Discuss methodologies that take account of
the interaction of marital status with mortality and morbidity, as well as
household–level models. Illustrate the utility of these methods for
development of retirement plans and joint and survivor annuities.
- Aging research. Discuss available and expected future research on
methods of slowing or mitigating the effects of aging on mortality or morbidity and/or what research might be
expected or needed in the future.
- Implications of an aging population for social,
financial, health care and retirement systems and/or the impact on quality of life issues.
- Public policy implications. Discuss the
public policy implications to social, financial, health care and/or retirement systems of the projected
increases in the life expectancy and relative size of the aged population.
- Retirement system implications. Discuss the
implications of increased longevity for defined benefit plans and their sponsors including impact on
solvency, degree of uncertainty about future mortality levels, importance of projections in funding,
implications of future changes, and possibility of discontinuance or marked decrease in benefits. Discuss
the implications for participants in defined contribution plans including the potential for outliving
one’s assets. Discuss the difficulty for these participants in dealing with longevity risk and any
public/private strategies for addressing this problem.
- Insurance industry implications. Discuss product
design, pricing,
underwriting and valuation implications of mortality improvement to the life and health insurance industry.
Discuss public attitudes for such products and describe alternatives developed due to public beliefs.
Evaluate the extent to which insurance companies and their regulators have recognized continuing increases in
longevity of annuitants with respect to newly issued and inforce annuities.
- Risk mitigation techniques. Discuss techniques that may
be used to mitigate the cost and risks associated with increased longevity for social, financial, health
care and/or retirement systems.
- Implications for future morbidity. Evaluate the
expected implications of improved mortality on future rates of morbidity and its impact on public or private
health care systems and/or the affordability of health care for the elderly.
- Implications for changes in characteristics of aged
populations. Evaluate the expected implications of improved mortality on demographic and economic
characteristics of advanced age populations, including health status, economic status and living
arrangements.
- Implications for health care costs. Discuss elderly
health care utilization and costs and its impact on mortality and quality of life, e.g., pharmaceutical
utilization by the elderly and its future costs and its effect on survival and quality of life. As more
people remain healthy longer, discuss whether their use of health care, advanced medical technologies, and
assisted living arrangements will grow or diminish. Discuss how great an influence rising expectations may
play.
- Quality of life measures and other implications for
individuals. Discuss possible changes in health status and quality of life of survivors at advanced
ages. Discuss probable mental and physical health of the “new elderly” in say, 2020 or 2030,
including the effects of disease such as severe cardiovascular disease, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s,
diabetes, and macular degeneration. Describe the lifestyle and quality of life of persons past what
currently is considered retirement age who continue to work full or part time. Contrast with those who are
not disabled but do not work for wages. Describe any variation by age.
- Public understanding of expanding longevity. Discuss
public understanding (or lack thereof) of increased longevity and the consequences of this level of
understanding
The SOA intends to publish all of the accepted papers on its website. A CD–Rom of
the accepted papers will be made available to attendees and other interested
parties. In addition, some papers may be published in one of the refereed journals of the Society of Actuarie
- Procedure for Submission of Abstracts
Please submit an abstract or outline of your proposed paper by October 16, 2006. The
abstract should include a brief description of the subject of the paper, data sources and methods to be used, and
key items to be covered. A brief curriculum vitae or resume would also be appreciated. If you are applying for
a travel grant, please include an estimate of your anticipated travel expenses. Please submit an abstract or
outline of your proposed paper by email or fax to:
Jan Schuh, SOA Research Administrator
Society of Actuaries
475 N. Martingale Road, Suite 600
Schaumburg, IL 60173–2226.
ph: 847.706.3556
f: 847.706.3599
- Procedure for Reviewing Abstracts
The Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia will review and evaluate all submitted
abstracts. Input from other knowledgeable individuals or sponsors also may be sought. The primary purpose of
this review is to assemble the program for the symposium and to ensure that the set of papers accepted will be
appropriate for presentation at the symposium and subsequent publication. A final determination as to the papers
invited to present will be made after all abstracts have been submitted and reviewed. The SOA reserves the right
to not accept any papers not meeting the standards established by the Committee on Living to 100 Research
Symposia.
The Committee will notify authors no later than November 30, 2006 about their decision to
accept, accept subject to revision, or decline each abstract submitted. This notification will also include the
decision of the Committee concerning the author’s application for a travel grant.
- Procedure for Submissions of Papers
Authors of accepted abstracts will be asked to present their papers at the symposium
tentatively scheduled on January 7–9, 2008, in Orlando, Florida, USA. All
papers, based on accepted abstracts, must be completed and submitted no later than June 30, 2007. The procedure
for submission of papers includes the following specific guidelines:
- Papers must be in English and must not have been published elsewhere.
- Papers should be prepared according to the
SOA General Style and Format Guidelines.
- Your paper will be posted electronically on our website for attendees prior to the symposium. We will also
distribute a CD–ROM with all the papers to all registered attendees.
- Submissions should be made electronically to Jan Schuh
- Publication
The SOA and other sponsoring organizations reserve the right to publish all papers and to
copyright all published papers without a previous copyright. In addition, excerpts or synopses of the papers may
be published for promotional purposes.
It should be noted that once a paper has been accepted for publication, the SOA owns the
copyright for that paper. If the author wishes to publish or distribute the paper or any portion thereof
elsewhere, permission must be obtained from the SOA to do so.
- Questions
Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to:
Ronora Stryker, SOA Research Actuary
ph: 847.706.3614
f: 847.273.8514
Please submit an abstract or outline of your proposed paper by October 16, 2006. The
abstract should include a brief description of the subject of the paper, data sources and methods to be used,
and key items to be covered. A brief curriculum vitae or resume would also be appreciated. If you are applying
for a travel grant, please include an estimate of your anticipated travel expenses. Please submit an abstract or
outline of your proposed paper by email or fax to:
Jan Schuh, SOA Research Administrator
Society of Actuaries
475 N. Martingale Road, Suite 600
Schaumburg, IL 60173–2226.
ph: 847.706.3556
f: 847.706.3599