2022 ImpACT Meeting - Session 8E: A Stochastic Compartmental Model for Pandemic Risk Assessment Recording

Pandemics are a main driver of losses for both life and non-life (re-)insurance. Until COVID-19, risk assessment mostly relied on a few historic examples, most importantly the Spanish flu. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that other pathogens (namely the coronaviruses) need to be taken into account. Also, modern societies and governments drastically respond to novel threats and implement measures such as social distancing, mask mandates, and lockdowns. Besides the properties of the pathogen itself, these reactions and the medical progression (namely the development of vaccines) are key influences on the course of a pandemic, and thus also the resulting outcomes. To account for the new insights, join us as we take a look at a stochastic, age-structured compartmental model that is calibrated on recent pandemics with several paramters sets to model different levels of reaction speed and stringency between groups of countries. Other important factors also must be defined in close collaboration with experts. Get ready to explore the development of a model and framework that can provide potential outcomes to be used as the basis to derive both summary and tail statistics to assess pandemic risk and help price complex deals.
By attending the session, you will be able to:
- Understand the necessary factors to consider and elements required in building and implementing this type of model.
TRACK: Spearheading innovation through change, Protecting long-term economic progress