Climate Change Contributions to Key Adverse Effects from Excessive Heat
Background and Purpose
As 2023 was the hottest year reported year globally, the study of the effects of excessive heat may significantly affect actuarial practice, including the quantification and management of its consequential and related risks.
It would be valuable to examine the extent climate change factors are or will contribute to excessive heat-related morbidity or mortality over the short or long term, including probable scenarios and projections of future morbidity and mortality costs, risks and uncertainties.
The SOA Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program is seeking essays on this topic. The collection of essays will be published on the SOA Excessive Heat Research Collection webpage that will explore the many impacts of excessive heat on mortality, morbidity, property damage, and other costs, as well as the combination of excessive heat and other climatic factors. It will be valuable for essays to include discussion of one or more applications to actuarial practice as well as discussion of quantification of risks resulting from excessive heat.
Authors are encouraged to visit the Excessive Heat Research Collection webpage, prior to submitting your essays for background, as well as food for thought.
Scope
There are several important overarching considerations regarding the scope of this call for essays, including:
- On a global level, July 1, 2023 through June 30, 2024 looks to be a record-setting period, more than 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels on a global level.
- Climate-related risks in future year impacts could be worse.
- There are unanswered questions and uncertainties regarding this risk.
- Heat-related risks can impact mortality, morbidity, healthcare costs, business interruption, lost productivity, as well as infrastructures.
Sample Topics of Interest for Essays
The SOA Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program seeks a range of essays that address key aspects related to the adverse effects of climate change from excessive heat. This invitation is written broadly to allow respondents the flexibility to address this topic from one or more perspectives and approaches. Respondents are free to choose from one or more of the following sample topics below or propose others that fall within the scope of this call as described in the above section. Please note that the following list is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of possible topics that may be addressed. Respondents are welcome to address other questions or topics that fall under the general scope of this call for essays.
Sample topics include:
- What are the primary and secondary impacts from heat? For example, with respect to morbidity and mortality that would lead to loss of productivity, damage to healthcare or public infrastructure, or business interruptions.
- What are the applications to actuarial practice of the risks from excessive heat?
- How will the risk management of insurers or other firms be affected by excessive heat?
- How can these risks be quantified?
- To what extent are climate-related risks impacting the heat-related impacts to life and health insurance?
- What are probable climatic scenarios and what are the quantification of morbidity and mortality costs, risks and uncertainties under these scenarios?
- What factors could make risks more severe, e.g., el Niños, humidity, and pre-existing medical conditions.
- What role do risks from excessive heat play in Workers Compensation and business interruption insurance, and lost productivity, wildfire, and subsidence risk?
- What can the actuarial profession do to provide input to the process of developing mitigation, adaptation and resilience tools to excessive heat-related perils?
- What is the role of excessive heat as part of a set of compounding or cascading risks and events.
In developing your essay, you may address one or more topics from the perspective of an individual, private sector business, insurer, or government.
Rules for Submission of Essays
Timeline
The deadline for submissions is August 30, 2024. Essays will be published as soon as possible in a formal collection.
Length and Instructions for Submission
Essays must be submitted in English with a desired length of between 500 to 2,500 words. There is no requirement for formal or extensive footnoting.
Author information must be submitted with the essay and include name; credentials or designations (if appropriate); title; organization/company; e-mail address; and phone number. Please provide all author information at the beginning of the essay.
Essays that contain any overt political statements, commercial content, and other inappropriate material will not be accepted. Articles must comply with the SOA's antitrust guidelines.
Please submit your essay via e–mail to the SOA Research Institute Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program at Research-CC@soa.org.
Awards
The Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program review committee will select the leading essays and may elect to award prize money. Up to $2,000 in award money has been allocated for this call for essays. The review committee will select the leading essays and determine how to allocate award money among them.
Consideration will be given to creativity, originality and the extent to which an idea could contribute to the further development of solutions to address this issue. In exchange for award money, selected authors will be required to assign all copyrights in their essays to the Society of Actuaries.
Authors are ineligible for awards if an essay is based on an SOA-sponsored and funded research study conducted by the author. However, authors are welcome to submit such essays for publication consideration.
Publication and Presentation
Depending on how many essays are received and the range of the topic areas, a suitable format for electronic publication and dissemination will be selected. Essays may also be presented at an SOA meeting, webcast, or other professional development event.
In addition, other venues for publication or presentation of the ideas outside of the Institute will be considered. It is hoped that publication of the collected essays will further knowledge and stimulate discussion as well as promote future efforts in this area.
Rights Granted
Please understand that by submitting an essay for consideration, the essay author(s) is granting to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute an unlimited license to print or republish their essay, with proper attribution given to the author(s).
Questions
Please direct any questions regarding this Call for Essays to Research-CC@soa.org.