Complexity Science–an introduction and invitation for actuaries

Research Projects in Health

Recognizing the potential importance of the new field of Complexity Science for the work of actuaries, the Health Section asked Alan Mills to write an introduction to the field. His report includes an overview of the field's key results, detailed instructions for building Complexity Science models, examples of working models for you to run, a review of practical models applicable to the work of actuaries, an extensive literature review, and a discussion of how actuaries can apply Complexity Science in their work.

Materials

• Complexity science–an introduction (and invitation) for actuaries

Accompanying the report are several Complexity Science models. To download them, click the following links:

• Network functions
• One-dimensional cellular automata
• Two-dimensional cellular automata
• Sandpile model
• Forest fire model
• Schelling segregation model
• Sugarscape model

By clicking on the following link, you can obtain instructions to download the models above, and to set up Complexity Science modeling platforms:

• Getting started with modeling platforms

To obtain detailed results of the report's literature search, click:

• Detailed literature search results

To obtain answers to the report's exercises, click:

• Answers to exercises

Thank You

For their support of the project, the Health Section thanks the members of the Project Oversight Group:

• Judy Strachan, Chair
• Steve Conwill
• Syed Mehmud
• Bernie Rabinowitz
• Lee Smith
• John Stark
• Steve Siegel, SOA Research Actuary
• Sara Teppema, SOA Staff Fellow for Health
• Barbara Scott, SOA Research Administrator

Questions Or Comments?

If you have comments or questions, please send an email to research@soa.org.

Disclaimer:

This report, its accompanying models, software tools and other associated documentation do not represent an official position, statement, or endorsement of the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The software has been developed for the benefit of actuaries FOR EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY, although others may find it useful. The SOA and the author make no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, regarding the software as to quality, accuracy, reliability, suitability or otherwise, and DISCLAIM ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. SOA and the author make no representation or warranty of non-infringement of proprietary rights of others with respect to the software. Further, the SOA and the author make no warranty that the software is free from errors, defects, worms, viruses or other elements or codes that manifest contaminating or destructive properties. The user assumes all risks relating to the use, outputs, analyses, results and performance of the software, regardless of whether the software is used alone or with other software. NEITHER THE SOA NOR THE AUTHOR SHALL BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ARISING FROM THE USE OF, RELIANCE ON, OR THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SOFTWARE OR ITS ACCOMPANYING INSTRUCTIONS OR DOCUMENTATION. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE SOA OR THE AUTHOR BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS) EVEN IF APPRISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.