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Real Time Delphi Study of Four Economic Variables

The Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Investment Section and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to release a new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables. Performed by Theodore J. Gordon, the research acquaints actuaries with the application of futures methods that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices.

In addition to the research report, the futures research tools used to generate the results are available upon request, both the Real Time Delphi (RTD) software and the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) software.  The RTD software facilitates the systematic means of collecting opinions from a group of experts on the quantum of the economic variables at various points in the future along with the rationales for those estimates. The TIA (Excel) software facilitates modification of the forecasts derived in the RTD results to reflect perceptions about probabilities and impacts from future potential external developments —economic, political, technological, or social.

Report

Real Time Delphi Study of Four Economic Variables 

Thank You

The Sponsors would like to thank the Project Oversight Group (POG) for their input and review.  The POG included representatives of the Society of Actuaries and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

  • David Armstrong
  • Steven W. Easson, Chairperson of the Project Oversight Group
  • Jack Gibson
  • Hal Pedersen
  • Jim Reiskytl
  • Max Rudolph
  • Keith Walter
  • Ben Wolzenski
  • Shlomit Jacobson, CIA Research Project Manager
  • Jan Schuh, SOA Sr. Research Administrator
  • Ronora Stryker, SOA Sr. Practice Research Actuary

Questions Or Comments?

If you have comments or questions, please email research@soa.org.