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Modeling and Forecasting Premature Cardiovascular Mortality

SOA Research Institute Societal Purpose

February 2024

Authors

Han Li, PhD, AIAA
Associate Professor
The University of Melbourne

Timothy Adair, PhD
Principal Research Fellow
The University of Melbourne

Overview

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality trends in high-income countries have seen a steady decrease since the 1960s. This has contributed to improvements in life expectancy. However, current trends in CVD mortality in high-income countries have not been improving uniformly. In some countries, including the U.S., there has been a slowing in improvement. This is particularly true for premature CVD mortality, specifically for people younger than 75 years.

A recent study by the SOA Research Institute models and forecasts premature CVD mortality, with a focus on educational level and cardiovascular mortality and obesity-related cardiovascular deaths. A key component of this research is an investigation into the role of obesity and education level in determining age-gender-specific premature CVD mortality.

Based on computed conditional premature CVD mortality, we find that during the period 2003–2019:

  • Cardiovascular disease mortality has been either increasing, especially in younger age groups, or has remained stable in recent years.
  • The prevalence of obesity has been increasing across all age groups and education levels.
  • The proportion of individuals with higher educational attainment has been increasing over time.
  • The proportion of obesity-related cardiovascular deaths has been increasing across all education attainment levels.

In this report, we have also estimated conditional premature CVD mortality given obesity status and education attainment for 2003-19, and we forecast it for 10 years, 2020–2029.

Materials

Modeling and Forecasting Premature Cardiovascular Mortality

Mortality Data Visualization Tool

Podcast

Modeling and Forecasting Premature Cardiovascular Mortality

Video

Acknowledgment

The researchers’ deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the Project Oversight Group and others for their diligent work reviewing this report for accuracy and relevance.

Project Oversight Group members:
Mark Bye, ASA
Carolyn Covington, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Nicholas De Marshall, ASA, EA
Sam Gutterman, FSA, CERA, MAAA, FCAS, FCA, HONFIA
Sav Perumal, FSA, MAAA
Marianne Purushotham, FSA, MAAA
George Silos, FSA, CERA, MAAA

At the Society of Actuaries:
Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA, Sr. Practice Research Actuary

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