Description: The author, head of Alternatives Investment Specialists at Fortis Investments, recently presented a research paper on the potential benefits and possible pitfalls of investing in illiquid assets. This newsletter provides a brief summary of that paper. The full paper is available upon request.

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Pension Section Research Committee commissioned this study to help actuaries develop forward thinking long-term estimates of future equity risk premiums. Equity risk premium is the amount by which the total return of a stock market index, such as the S&P 500, exceeds that of government bonds. Equity risk premiums, calculated from historical data, have been used to project long term values of equity portfolios in retirement plans. The validity of using historical data to project future equity returns will be examined along with other forward looking methods.

Description: Feature article discussing the PBGC’s asset reallocation plan.

Description: The article introduces a cashflow matching strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework for life insurers. Given the recent shift to higher interest rates after two decades of persistent low interest rates, insurers have an opportunity to enhance their asset liability management by rebalancing asset portfolios to narrow duration gaps and attain higher risk-adjusted yields. The framework aims to align investment objectives with economic, regulatory, and rating agency requirements. It prioritizes cashflow matching as the primary optimization goal and incorporates security-level asset information to assist portfolio managers in executing SAA seamlessly. The article highlights the benefits of the cashflow matching SAA framework, including greater attention to cashflow matching, unbiased results, readily executable strategies, and stable economic reserves. A case study is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework in improving risk-adjusted return and cashflow matching for a representative liability block.

Description: This is a Fellowship Credit Research Paper. A portfolio of different insurance policies such as temporary, endowment and whole-life insurance policies is studied in a stochastic mortality and interest environment. The first two moments of the present value of the benefits of the portfolio are derived. The riskiness of the portfolio as measured by the variance of the present value of the benefits can be divided into an insurance risk and an investment risk in two different ways. One way leads to a more natural interpretation of the two risk components. A simple portfolio is used to illustrate the results.

Description: Reviews anecdotal evidence that the current shift to passive investing is an indication that investors are irrationally ignoring market risk.

Description: The following vidoe is from Eric Milner, ASA MAAA Vice President and Actuary at Risk Strategies Company. IN this video he takes us through the intricated world of investment, risks, asset allocation, and fundamental theories of quantitative finance. The session begins by dissecting Market Risk, Credit Risk, Liquidity Risk, and Operational Risk, emphasizing the importance of not just identifying but quantifying and managing these risks intelligently. Strategies for Asset Allocation and Diversification are discussed alongside cornerstone theories such as Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Behavioral Finance shed light on market dynamics and the impact of psychological influences on financial decision-making, providing a comprehensive understanding essential for sophisticated investment strategies and informed financial analysis. Contributors: Eric Milner, ASA, MAAA; Richard Vaccaro, FSA, MAAA ; Diyi Zhao ASA, MAAA; Jon Forster ASA, MAAA

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA New York Meeting addresses asset prepayments including emerging prepayment experience in the mortgage-backed - CMO security arena, special modeling considerations when addressing prepayments and the NAIC's FLUX model and the scenario and assumption specifications of that model. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 2.

Description: This is the abstract of the paper Hedging of Insurance Contracts. ls the tinting of liabilities e.g. the IBNR case irrelevant to investment decisions in an insurance company? Even in the extreme case of independence between claim developments and movements in the financial markets, the assumption of constant insurers' absolute measure of risk aversion is necessary for a positive answer to the initial question.