Description: This paper develops the binomial version of the Lee-Carter model and provides a comparative study of simulation strategies for assessing risk in mortality rate predictions and associated estimates of life expectancy and annuity values in both period and cohort frameworks.

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: Chapter 7 reviews several items that the study identified as requirements for a good risk assessment method. They are: accurate predictability, practicality and reasonable cost, limitation on ability to game the system, timeliness in regard to premiums, appropriate incentives for efficiency. From A Comparative Analysis of Methods of Health Risk Assessment, M-HB96-1.

Description: This paper examines disincentives for long careers created by Social Security. The paper then discusses the subsequent stress on public and private pension systems caused by increasingly long retirements.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to examine the various profit objectives used in the development of a new product for a stock life insurance company. From Product Development Section Monograph, M-AS99-3.

Description: Appendix of tables related to phased retirement.

Description: List of charts. From Retirement Implications of Demographic and Family Change Symposium Monograph, M-RS02-2.

Description: Abstract: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: Separating incident and prevalent populations is useful, but the use of a cohort to make an RTM adjustment is unwarranted in the population-based pre- versus post-period design. From Financing Chronic Care Monograph, M-HB05-1.

Description: This paper examines the Retirement Shares Plan which allows participants to allocate their benefits to the classes of shares available. Thus risk-averse retirees can be assured of relatively stable benefits, while the less risk-averse can have their benefits backed by a diversified of equity portfolio.