Description: In December 2007, Goldman Sachs launched a product called QxX index swap, which is designed to allow market participants to hedge or gain exposure to longevity and mortality risks. This presentation offers a quantitative analysis of this brand new financial innovation. First of all, the presentation sets up a risk-neutral framework to price QxX index swaps. This framework, which is based on the dynamics of death rates under a two-factor stochastic mortality model in a risk-adjusted probability measure, yields prices [spreads] that are fairly close to the spreads that Goldman Sachs currently offers. The presentation then explores the uncertainty involved in this model-based pricing framework. Specifically, it studies parameter risk by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo [MCMC] and model risk by examining structural changes in mortality dynamics. The results indicate that both model risk and parameter risk are significant. Actuaries should therefore be aware of these issues when placing a value on a longevity index swap.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that considers the pricing in a non-competitive market and models the pricing process as a bargaining game.

Description: The growing global recognition of the importance of climate-related risks (transition and physical) has triggered a significant demand for research on the interface between climate and actuarial sciences, for example on the impact of risks from climate change on insurance markets and their operations. Furthermore, the systemic nature of climate-related risks underpins actuaries’ need to engage and work with diverse groups of stakeholders, including clients, communities, governments, regulators, boards, and investors. Contributions are invited for a special issue of the Annals of Actuarial Science featuring research on the topic ‘Managing Climate-Related Risks’. This special issue aims to capture leading interdisciplinary thinking, with clear relevance to actuarial problems in pensions and insurance.

Description: This report documents modeling work and compares the decomposition results from the two routes described in Volume 1.

Description: This report compares and contrasts methodologies for allocating U.S. historical gender-specific mortality improvement experience into four components.

Description: This is the abstract for the presentation on pricing longevity index swaps.